Seeing a decline in turkeys

[kdsberman]

Hey guys.  Wondering if you could throw some advice my way.  Up until about 5 years ago it would nothin to see a good 6-8 toms in the flock with a handful of jakes.  Then, about 5 years ago I began to notice there doesn't seem to be as many toms like there normally is. And finally, I saw 1 tom in the entire flock. Did a lot of scouting, trying to find more but it was just the one.  I was wondering if I should shoot him if I had the opportunity.  Well, I got that chance and took it, and he ended up being a monster (28#, 11" beard). And although I thought it was crazy to think this, I couldn't help but think, "did I just shoot the ONLY tom in the area?"  Didn't make me feel any better not seeing any jakes neither.

Then the next year, there were 3 toms (obviously was some jakes from the previous year).  I shot one. So we were down to 2 toms the way it appeared.  The year after, just those 2 toms again.  I know it was the same toms because they both never leave each other's sides and both have unique beards.   A few weeks ago, I saw a flock and sure enough those same two toms again.

I know it seems I'm jumping to conclusions, but what could be the problem here?  We used to see a bunch of toms every year, to only seeing a couple.   I will admit that I do usually get a bird each spring, but could that really "hurt" the population??

Someone else I talked to about this said if u have a lot of raccoons in the area to start getting rid of them, as they are a major risk to the turkey population due to them being bad nest predators, and that this could be the problem?

Does anyone have any advice on what I can do to help this situation out a little?  I don't want to feel like shooting a tom is going to put a hurting on the turkey numbers. 

Thanks guys


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[owlhoot]

Raccoons are a major problem in my opinion.Notorious egg suckers who have been left unchecked for many years now.
In the past fur price was high ,many ran dogs and shot many coons which kept them in check.Trapping was popular also. You know during those years the turkey population exploded .
Also remember the best time to shoot a coyote? Is When you see one . Too many turkey predators out there.

[fallhnt]

Poor hatches,habitat and predators are factors in the turkey population. You can control 2/3 of this.

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[Goodtimekiller]

There is a heated discussion on this topic already posted about turkeys dying off going i'll try to find the thread title


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[Goodtimekiller]

Turkeys are dyin? Is the other thread


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[appalachianassassin]

every year I have roughly 15 to 20 toms counting all the areas I hunt. between me and people I take we usually kill almost all of them. next year there is always 15 to 20 toms again. I watched 18 die last year and there are more this year than last. that being said, I forbid the shooting of jakes when people hunt with me. even if they are 5 years old.

[zelmo1]

If there are too many toms in an area up here, they move off to adjacent areas. We have a decent stable population here right now. I hunt a wide area of southern Maine and NH. When you find them, there are usually a bunch. I do let jr and first time hunters shoot jakes. It gets them hooked and most of them make up their own mind to be tom hunters after that. My 10 year old daughter shot her first bird, a jake ,last year on youth day. She was so happy. 40 mins later 4 more jakes came in, she scanned them all and said" Dad, is it ok if I wait for a big tom". I was so proud of her. We hunted the rest of the season, every satyrday, and had 3 more oppurtunities on jakes. She never took the safe off. She is in all turkey mode right now. We are making some pot calls to try this year. That would be the cherry on top if she kills one when I am using our calls. My wife is hunting for the first time too, a little pressure on me this year. Good luck everyone. Al Baker

[eggshell]

There is a couple of things that happen in a population that is occurring in many parts of the country and I have seen turkey hunters lament over what is a natural phenomena. In most parts of the US turkey populations were either non-existent or very sparse. State DNRs then began reintroducing birds from other areas or states. What happens with wildlife species is they first sense a broad expanse of unfilled habitat and reproduction explodes to fill it. This happens to the point of saturation. Then a natural reduction in populations starts to happen. Why do birds decrease? Every habitat has a carrying capacity. Carrying capacity is a function of food, shelter and competition. Local populations will fall back to a carrying capacity. This will vary with poor hatches or good hatches, but be within say 30% of a mean from year to year. Predators can influence this but are far less impact then most think, only in extreme cases are predators to blame. Disease can be devastating, and that is why most agencies do not want domestic birds introduced. Predator population will fluctuate to what prey levels are. This whole process of saturation to carrying capacity will in most cases take 25-30 years to run a complete cycle and most hunters have not been around that long. So when they see it happening they fear the worse. I have watched in happen in multiple regions in my 45 years of turkey hunting. I also have a degree in wildlife management and worked for a state wildlife agency for 30 years. SO that is why you see about the same number of gobblers every year. So don't worry about killing a few, there are birds your not seeing around. It would be rare to over kill an area. 

[zelmo1]

Great info, this is happening in the New England now. No turkeys in the 70's, a few in the 80's, 90's wer better, 2000's wewre good and now it is leveling off here. But they are moving north and thriving. year to year we see a small change. We try to thin out the predators and some of us plant or feed for them during the non hunting months. Great read, Thanks. Al Baker

[saltysenior]

There is a couple of things that happen in a population that is occurring in many parts of the country and I have seen turkey hunters lament over what is a natural phenomena. In most parts of the US turkey populations were either non-existent or very sparse. State DNRs then began reintroducing birds from other areas or states. What happens with wildlife species is they first sense a broad expanse of unfilled habitat and reproduction explodes to fill it. This happens to the point of saturation. Then a natural reduction in populations starts to happen. Why do birds decrease? Every habitat has a carrying capacity. Carrying capacity is a function of food, shelter and competition. Local populations will fall back to a carrying capacity. This will vary with poor hatches or good hatches, but be within say 30% of a mean from year to year. Predators can influence this but are far less impact then most think, only in extreme cases are predators to blame. Disease can be devastating, and that is why most agencies do not want domestic birds introduced. Predator population will fluctuate to what prey levels are. This whole process of saturation to carrying capacity will in most cases take 25-30 years to run a complete cycle and most hunters have not been around that long. So when they see it happening they fear the worse. I have watched in happen in multiple regions in my 45 years of turkey hunting. I also have a degree in wildlife management and worked for a state wildlife agency for 30 years. SO that is why you see about the same number of gobblers every year. So don't worry about killing a few, there are birds your not seeing around. It would be rare to over kill an area.

I agree with 99% of your post, however I have witness a few times over the years, not a decline, but an almost disappearance of a population of birds......while you worked with the agency, what did you experience as far as disease is concerned ??

[owlhoot]

That's what I have seen in areas of northern Missouri as well.
Farms with 8-10 gobbler on it reduced to 2 or so and no bounce back to at least 4-5 and some down to none .
Not much has changed on these farms as far as habitat and feed.

[appalachianassassin]

one of my biggest problems is the baiting of turkeys on neighboring properties.

[howl]

Populations have ups and downs. The main problem is recruitment. You can't lay, hatch and rear for them. Can't control the weather, either.

Taking out feral cats, coons, possums and crows helps some, for sure, but is it even measurable? I will caution against shooting predators that also prey on rats, etc.

The one thing that I have found that I did not know before the past few years, is that turkey retract into historical ranges when populations dip. The idea that they concentrate and can be overhunted in a small area is alarming. I intentionally left an area be and later learned someone else focused on it because that is the only area he found birds at all. I spread my harvest around a few counties. He stayed on those birds until he killed what were probably the only few gobblers within ten miles.

[eggshell]

It is hard to document disease as it is usually too late before you realize there was a problem, but it can be devastating. I think our wild flocks are building some immunity as they have spread out and had incidental exposures. That is just a feeling I have, I can't document it. I have seen some local flocks really decline and never really put a reason behind it. Recruitment is primary to turkey stability and three straight years of bad hatches can be devastating. I think it is possible to hunt down a population in some area, particularly in area with sparse continuous habitat, like farm land with wood lots. When birds suddenly disappear from suitable habitat my guess is disease is the most likely cause. Like I said you usually don't realize this until the birds are gone. 

[turkaholic]

I too am a concerned New England hunter and agree with most here. I have read about LPDV and Avain Pox in NY and it seems real. I have not seen any evidence of this personally. You would think if birds are dying there would be evidence left behind. Like feathers etc. The areas I hunt and have hunted for over 30 years are in decline and have been for nearly 8 or 10 years. I also see a lack of toms and jakes but see many hens. With this decent number of hens you would think the population would be fine. I also find myself reluctant to kill birds, because I love them and turkey hunting and can't stand where it's heading. I normally get one bird in CT and one in NY and this is my average sucess rate. I will however let them walk, and it feels good.