Factors in an area's turkey population?

[cornfedkiller]

The population here in my part of Iowa has been down the last few years.  I haven't lived here more than a few years, but everyone I talk to says they used to see way more turkeys, and the last few years have been really down compared to 5-10 years ago.. Hearing people say that, its always made me curious what factors are playing into that.

What helps/hurts the turkey population?  Is a dry spring beneficial?  Wet springs detrimental?  Certain months matter more than others?

Obviously predators are a factor as well, but are certain predators more influential than others?  Coyotes, raccoons, bobcats, etc?  A guy told me he saw a bald eagle dive down and kill an adult hen last year, which I had never heard of, but have no reason not to believe him.

[kjnengr]

I think that the predators do have a large part in controlling turkey population.  I have always heard that raccoons eat turkey eggs.  I believe it.  A buddy of mine started trapping and hunting 'coons hard in the last two years on his land.  Unless this year was an anomaly, he had double the population of turkeys this year than ever before. 

[Bill Cooksey]

I'll leave the disease issue alone, as it's one your state game and fish should be able to answer if it is an issue there.

Weather has a significant impact on nesting and poult survival. Obviously a flood can wash out a nest, and some areas are more prone to that possibility than others. Once hatched, poults are very susceptible to freezing if they get soaked in the rain. Not a whole lot we can do about it.

In regards to predators, my understanding is nest predators have the greatest impact. Adult turkeys certainly fall prey at times, but it's not significant to the population. A nest predator can wipe out a potential flock of turkeys in seconds. Larger predators certainly aren't above raiding a nest, but the most common are the smaller ones such as crows, coons, possums and a host of others. How much we can do about this issue varies according to which "expert" you speak to.

Not sure how to put this without offending some, but I don't mean to do so. My state has a generous limit and over-the-counter tags. It may be more an issue in specific regions, but I've thought, and more than one wildlife professional has agreed as well when I've spoken directly with them, that some of the decoy innovations have possibly led to hunting contributing to additive mortality. Basically, our high limit was set before strutting decoys were common and in a time when most of the state had a stretch of very good hatches. We then hit a stretch with poorer hatches in many areas, yet folks continued killing similar numbers of gobblers to past years when there were more of them.

The overall population might not be significantly impacted, but there's some thought the number of gobblers carrying over is lower. Obviously you would expect the woods to be a bit quieter a couple of years after a bad nesting year, but if hunter success remained similar during those down cycles it's reasonable to conclude we are having a bigger impact than once thought. I guess the question is, did hunters suddenly get much better or did new devices allow us to kill a higher percentage of available birds than regulations set before those innovations accounted for?

Again, not meant as an attack on those who hunt over new decoys, or decoys in general. I can't blame someone for using a legal device to help their hunting. Short of a stretch of great nest success on a statewide basis, I'll be surprised if we don't see a reduction in either the season or limit in my home state.

[GobbleNut]

Great post Bill.  I agree 100%. 
Fundamentally, with properly timed spring gobbler seasons,....ones that allow an adequate amount of breeding to be done before hunting is allowed,...the number of gobblers harvested during the season is irrelevant.  However, that strategy presumes that adequate recruitment to the turkey population will occur through reproductive success. 

What that strategy does not take into consideration are several years of reproductive failure, or some other circumstance that causes turkey population numbers to plummet.  Regarding spring gobbler hunting, the question really becomes one of whether there are adequate numbers of gobblers in a population to insure full breeding of the hen population each spring. 

In theory, it does not require many gobblers to achieve that goal, but it is incumbent upon wildlife managers to know what is going on with their turkey populations to make an informed assessment as to whether full breeding is occurring.  If all adult hens in a population are not being bred, the obvious culprit is that there are not enough gobblers around. 

Too many successive years of reproductive failure, while maintaining liberal spring bag limits could,...once again, in theory,...deplete the adult gobbler numbers in an area to a level where, even in good years, reproductive success is threatened.  I suspect this situation is extremely rare,...and I also believe that gobbler mortality through spring hunting has little to do with the health of most wild turkey populations. 

However, responsible management of the resource should include a level of recognition that a certain minimum number of gobblers has to be maintained for turkey populations to remain healthy.  Managers (and sportsmen) cannot close their eyes to the notion that, in those states with very liberal spring gobbler bag limits, too many gobblers might be harvested in a series of poor years of reproduction,...and those liberal bag limits might need to be reduced for a time.

[turkey_slayer]

More turkey hunters now so more turkeys being killed. I believe that's the main reason compared to what it was like 15-20 years ago. Nest predators are probably hard on them to since trapping isn't as big as it once was. I'm still not convinced on the weather. Have seen way too many good hatches in "poor" hatching conditions. Then you have your owls, hawks and bobcats that get a few. Turkeys sure do live a rough life

[nativeks]

Already found a raided nest this year.

Weather killed us. You can kill 6 birds a year in Kansas between fall and spring. We had 5 years with little to no recruitment. Lots of rain and substantial flooding took its toll. Population plummeted to the point I didn't even buy a tag in 2013. I only bought one tag this year. The state has acknowleged we have an issue and dropped from 4 fall tags to 1 in this zone.

I am improving the habitat on my place and we will be tapping. I want the numbers to recover to what they were in the late 1990s to early 2000s.