If I am sitting in a particular stand during deer season, and see turkey, what are the chances of them being there come April? I was sitting in a stand on a road through my farm and saw several gobblers walk through. Would this be a good place to sit in April or will their "home area" change by then?
Unfortunately the answer is "it depends." Not knowing the terrain you are in, ratio of woods and fields, sizes of woods, food sources, etc it's hard to venture a guess. In general, turkeys live their entire lives within a relatively small range so you've got that going for you. It's safe to say they are "in the area." Where they going to be "living" at a given time is related to food and cover, as well as grouping and mating behavior. Rich food sources that they frequent in spring and summer may be gone by fall so they potentially may frequent another area that holds more food for that given time of year. Also, turkeys tend to group up in the fall and in the spring they separate as mating dominance and searching for a new girlfriend comes into play.
I've got areas that I hunt that hold turkeys all year around. To me it seems to be as simple as noting these are farms with lots of woods, lots of left over food in the fields, etc so they have everything they need all year around. I've got some more open farm country closer to my home where I always see groups of turkeys throughout the winter, but come spring we've scouted and attempted to hunt but the birds have disappeared.
Personally, if I saw them in the fall it would be good enough for me to at least make an effort to go scouting for them in the spring. Look for tracks, scat, feathers, roosting trees, etc.
That's as good a starting point as I would hope for.
50/50.
This is the gold mine question for newer turkey guys. Same thing for coyotes. Anyway, it all depends on where the birds go to when the winter flocks break up. Expecting to see birds, coyotes, deer, etc where they where is not a great strategy. Things change, scout by driving roads, looking n listening n you'll be in the birds come season
The chances of hearing turkeys where you saw them last fall is very good. Seeing them is not as good. The places where they were feeding in deer season may be played out and they may have moved elsewhere. However, they may be fairly close by.
I've got my own 200 acre farm. Turkeys are on there most of the year. They often go elsewhere over the winter and then show back up in the spring.
I've got at least one treestand that the turkeys use for roosting. They seem to use it a lot. I also have a few roosting sites that have been stable for over a decade. They keep returning to the same spots.
So, if you see them in the fall, go back there and listen starting at first light. It is quite possible you will hear them on the roost.
Where do they go? I think they are going closer to the river to look for food. The Licking river is a couple of miles away, and there are two large creeks that empty into it that bracket my property. It sometimes takes them until late March to show up. Other years, they are there in late February.