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I do a yearly turkey season weather prediction for another forum. While I was prepping for it, I discovered something. The weather conditions predicted for this spring are going to be ENSO-Neutral. The years we've had ENSO-Neutral conditions also match up with the years our turkey camp has hardly filled a tag.

Details are here:
 ENSO-Nada The Turkey Dead Zone (https://genesis9.angzva.com/?p=14366)

That doesn't sound good, not good at all!

I suppose I am the only one here that doesn't know what the heck you are talking about?...
To put it in acronym form...WTFAYTA   ;D

Imma kill some birds regardless of your prediction!

I'm with Gobblenut.


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No Gobblenut, I just as lost as you are. Maybe we can learn something.




 

I think there is a Dead Zone in Turkey

Quote from: Greg Massey on February 05, 2026, 12:01:44 PMI think there is a Dead Zone in Turkey

The tree I just got up from is usually a turkey dead zone.lol

I just checked this ENSO-neutral climate report and I say, "Hunt Hard Everyone."  "Get after them."  Turkeys have to breed and feed, so we are always in the game!  Good Luck to Everyone!  Always looking forward to being in the woods! 

Well, first off, the link at the bottom of the message was jacked-up.  I fixed that

Here it is again:
ENSO-Nada  -- The Turkey Dead Zone (https://genesis9.angzva.com/?p=14366)


Read that link.  It should explain everything.

Bottom line:  from our turkey camp in  SW Bracken County, KY, we've filled exactly 1 tag in 25 years of hunting our property during  ENSO-Neutral conditions.  What's ENSO-Neutral?  Well, it's halfway between El-Nino and La Nina.  I just realized the fact this morning. I had the latest long-range weather forecast and our turkey camp's log up on separate screens. 

At this point, I haven't figured out what causes this. It's going to take a lot more digging in the logs.  However, I do know that one of the years was a complete washout due to governor of KY banning out of state turkey hunting during COVID.  Another 2 years we didn't fill tags, but we found the neighbors were poaching our property mercilessly.  After they were evicted, the turkeys came back.  Still there's a good reason to believe ENSO-Neutral conditions have caused us to have bum years.  In fact, we've done a pretty good job of filling tags in any year that wasn't ENSO-Neutral.

I haven't read through the data yet, (my work is blocking the link) but does it state which years were the "dead zone"?  That would be pretty easy for people to reflect on and see if it correlates to their personal experience. 

Quote from: GobbleNut on February 05, 2026, 09:19:42 AMI suppose I am the only one here that doesn't know what the heck you are talking about?...
To put it in acronym form...WTFAYTA   ;D

Lol!

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Quote from: CALLM2U on February 05, 2026, 03:09:50 PMI haven't read through the data yet, (my work is blocking the link) but does it state which years were the "dead zone"?  That would be pretty easy for people to reflect on and see if it correlates to their personal experience. 

1991,1994,2004,2013,2014,2020 

Those years are mentioned in an article I saw about the long range forecast that got me digging.  When you can, read the link I posted.  It has a detailed chart.

Mind you, I'm not saying all ENSO-Neutral years are bad years or that Everyone is going to experience this.  What I'm saying is that my area in the Greater Ohio Valley has had this.  The Greater Ohio Valley seems to have distinct effects in El Nino and La Nina years that may differ from yours. 

Also:  I'm not suggesting anyone give up hunting this year.  I'm certainly going to be out every day I can.  However, I know most hunters see good and bad years.  I also know a lot of y'all hunt in different states.  I hunt one patch in NE KY and that's it.  Normally we have great turkey hunting, but there have been some years that left me scratching my head.

Erratic weather definitely puts birds into weird moods, but if the birds are there and you are familiar with the area they still die!

I never kept track of years which I regret now of course but I can't remember a whole season that was bad?  Ebbs and flows for sure but turkey abundance or lack there of is number one, hunting pressure number two.  Barring every day just being storms or something crazy!


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Do the work, put in your time and have fun.  :funnyturkey: Z

Weather men cannot get the weather right in a week.. I'm pretty sure this will change many times before our season begins.

Anyone want to bet me I dont kill a turkey this year?

Sometimes you just have to ask yourself what's more logical.

A. ENSO NADA caused warmer and wetter conditions which caused turkeys to leave your farm.

Or

B. The warmer, wetter conditions led to less gobbling. Turkeys were less vocal, harder to hear in the rain, less active and harder to locate. In addition to this Hunters at Turkey Camp logged fewer hours hunting during hot, rainy weather.

Weather can certainly impact harvest #s but mostly due to the impact it has on hunters not the game animals.

Turkeys still out there being Turkeys despite wet warm weather.

I'm buying an E-bike and driving to a non enso-zone