Virginia DWR’s take on population decline

[deathfoot]

So I read this article last week that came in my email from the Virginia DWR. A very interesting take. Not sure if I buy it completely. I do think weather plays a huge role in the population and survival of young poults. Curious as to you alls take. I also don't doubt the coyote argument here, except I do think poults could be easy prey to both yotes and especially foxes.

Here's most of the report:

As is often the case with all things hunting, Virginia's upcoming spring gobbler season offers a mixture of good and bad news. Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources (DWR) Upland Game Bird Biologist Mike Dye believes that hunters should expect solid action; however, turkey numbers have declined in pockets over the past half decade or so.

"Generally, 2-year-old gobblers make up the bulk of the harvest," he said. "They gobble the most, and are also the age group most likely to come to calls. In 2021, we had a relatively good poult per hen (pph) ratio of 2.7, which was much better than the 2020 and 2022 pph ratios, each of which was 1.9.

"There is a caveat with the 2020 figure, though. That year was the beginning of the pandemic, and staff drove fewer miles looking for birds, which definitely affected the number of sightings. But the reality is that there probably won't be as many 3-year-olds and jakes around this spring."

Dye believes the turkey population decline is not because our birds are being overhunted or because of coyotes and other predators.

"Mortality from weather is the number one killer of turkeys, specifically poults under two weeks of age," he said. "Poults can't fly up to roost until they are from 10 days to two weeks old. And for the past several springs during that time of vulnerability, we've had unseasonably, cold, wet rains. The change in weather patterns and the ill-timed weather events do appear to be linked to changes in the overall climate.

"This isn't unique to Virginia," Dye continued. "States all over the Southeast are experiencing the same population changes, and now it's starting to spread to the Northeast states as well. Some people like to blame the population declines on raccoons and coyotes. But the last 20 years, we haven't seen a population increase in raccoons, and studies show that coyotes actually may have a positive effect on turkey populations because they prey on some of our nest predators. Hunters often report that they've seen coyotes stalking or chasing turkeys. But coyotes are usually about as successful catching healthy, adult turkeys as my dog is catching squirrels in my backyard."

[hpo]

Thanks for posting.

[Brillo]

So the official position of the Virginia DWR is that weather is the most important driver of turkey populations in Virginia and climate change is the driver behind current weather patterns?  It would be instructive to know the official position of all the state wildlife agencies as regards turkey populations.  I wonder how much they collaborate.

[eggshell]

I actually agree with most of this. I have spent hours thinking about this and weather is the biggest common denominator that has changed. when we had dense populations we still had a fairly robust predator population. I was just thinking  the other day it is most likely weather or disease. Sure we can help by reducing predators in a stressed population, but it is not going to save our flocks. This is a pretty big swing in some of my previous thoughts.

[tracker#1]

I agree that the "weather" has an effect. In the colder north here in WNY biologists have always blamed poor populations on "cold wet Springs". I noticed that the population is way better further north closer to the St.Lawrence river area and away from the Great Lakes and the inland Finger Lakes regions in the middle of the state, which holds better pockets of birds. Here where I live, we get what meteorologists call the "lake effect" rain. I truly believe that's the reason along with trapping in decline.

[Haymarket]

The problem with his statement is that it isn't backed up by any data, other than the population data. No weather data, no climate data, just a theory. Certainly a wet Spring has a negative effect on that year, but he makes no attempt to compare the weather the past few springs with the previous years. Every state is not seeing equal increases in rain in June (or whenever poulting season is in that state). So, he's just throwing out anecdotes and theories, no science at all on the matter. For some reason with the rapid increase in predator (coyote) levels across the Southeast/Northeast, we see a decline in turkey populations, but he claims that has no effect, or a positive effect, and uses his dog catching squirrels as an analogy. There is no science that says that increasing coyote populations increase turkey populations as he alleges, and we are seeing the opposite play out in big way. So, essentially I think he wants to blame "climate change" as the boogie man, and is making a very poor argument to do it, not backed by any facts or data or science. We all know we have coyotes in places in Virginia now where we had none a decade ago, and the populations are higher across the state. We know we have smaller turkey populations that correlate almost exactly to the rise in coyote populations. Is the rise causative? I don't know that, but I believe that it is much more likely the cause than general "climate change". The notion is almost absurd, as colder wetter states to the North had great populations, and hotter wetter states to the South had great populations, so neither increased rain, increased heat, or increased cold seems to the the sustained issue. Coyote populations are the identifiable variable, and some people are so set on glorifying their abundance, that they don't want that to be the issue for anything. Some of those same people have a religious style affection for "climate change" as the answer to all questions.

[El Pavo Grande]

To what degree weather plays a role, it's hard to place a value on it.  But, I would agree that it is a part of the overall puzzle, and in my opinion a big piece.  In my home state, in the last 20 years we have had just a couple years of what you would consider dry nesting and brooding seasons.  And our poult to hen counts were higher in those.  Example, 2012 was very dry during that period as compared to before and after.  The overall hatches were solid and by 2014 the hunting quality improved greatly as a result.  On the flip side, 2017, 2018, and 2019 were extremely wet and we had negative results, with a couple poult per hen counts below 1.  Was it all weather?   No, but from an anecdotal point of view it sure seems to be a big factor. 

[eggshell]

here's a link to the Va. Data

https://dwr.virginia.gov/blog/random-thoughts-and-observations-on-coyotes/

Back when I worked for The Division of wildlife I once saw a paper presented on Coyote diets and interactions with wildlife and it indicated most of their diet is rodents, scavenged dead animals and and fruits/berries. Birds were not a large part of their diet except by opportunity. The one game animal they did take on a consistent basis was fawns. The study showed they could take up to 26% of new fawns. I don't  remember the author to find it in any of the data bases but  that is what I remember. I think there is data on weather events. It's not necessarily the overall  weather changes, but the wrong weather events at critical times that get's poults. I am not trying to argue anyone's side or point just sharing anopinion and some facts as I know them.

[deathfoot]

The problem with his statement is that it isn't backed up by any data, other than the population data. No weather data, no climate data, just a theory. Certainly a wet Spring has a negative effect on that year, but he makes no attempt to compare the weather the past few springs with the previous years. Every state is not seeing equal increases in rain in June (or whenever poulting season is in that state). So, he's just throwing out anecdotes and theories, no science at all on the matter. For some reason with the rapid increase in predator (coyote) levels across the Southeast/Northeast, we see a decline in turkey populations, but he claims that has no effect, or a positive effect, and uses his dog catching squirrels as an analogy. There is no science that says that increasing coyote populations increase turkey populations as he alleges, and we are seeing the opposite play out in big way. So, essentially I think he wants to blame "climate change" as the boogie man, and is making a very poor argument to do it, not backed by any facts or data or science. We all know we have coyotes in places in Virginia now where we had none a decade ago, and the populations are higher across the state. We know we have smaller turkey populations that correlate almost exactly to the rise in coyote populations. Is the rise causative? I don't know that, but I believe that it is much more likely the cause than general "climate change". The notion is almost absurd, as colder wetter states to the North had great populations, and hotter wetter states to the South had great populations, so neither increased rain, increased heat, or increased cold seems to the the sustained issue. Coyote populations are the identifiable variable, and some people are so set on glorifying their abundance, that they don't want that to be the issue for anything. Some of those same people have a religious style affection for "climate change" as the answer to all questions.

Valid points. I should have clarified that this was the forecast for this years turkey season and not a detailed report of population in the state.

[WV Flopper]

 Weather is alot of a factor in poult survival. To wet and to dry, both have large adverse effects if into play at the wrong time of the poult life cycle.

Sure coyotes get some, be we don't have enough coyotes around here to do much damage. I would bet eagles get more poults in my county than coyotes.

[Teamblue]

In my part of VA, the huge mansions that are getting built in the middle of legacy farmland are of more consequence than climate change and predators


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[rifleman]

Blame weather if they like but back in the 70's, 80's, and even the early 90's birds on my part of the Blue Ridge Mts. were plentiful.  Coon hunting was an every night money maker for many guys who also killed opposums, skunks and the occasional fox.  Today these critters are not hunted at all as those sports have died out thanks to many factors.  It is not uncommon to find a nest or two destroyed each spring.  Studies have shown that most hens will lay eggs a second time but scarcely none will a third time.

[TauntoHawk]

My feelings are that everyone's "kinda" right. It's weather, predators, habitat degradation, anddd hunting pressure

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[GobbleNut]

My feelings are that everyone's "kinda" right. It's weather, predators, habitat degradation, and hunting pressure

I think we all agree on this.  In addition, those different factors can play an entirely different role in some parts of the country as compared to others. 

Taking coyote predation as an example, I have no doubts that in some parts of the country they are more efficient predators on turkeys than others.  In this part of the country, however, I have seen little evidence that coyotes are a significant limiting factor in turkey populations. 

Regarding changing climatic conditions, an apparently drying global climate impacts not only the overall landscape, but seems to be changing regional weather patterns, some of which are having negative impacts on survivability of all sorts of living organisms, turkeys included.  (*By the same token, there are very likely places where these same climate and weather-pattern changes are also favorable to certain species,...turkeys included)

[Kylongspur88]

Weather plays a role as does a lot of things. It's a death by a thousand cuts scenario.